Folland (2025)
The Met Office has forecast global temperature a year ahead for 25 years with striking accuracy, but the 2023 heat spike slipped past everyone
A review of 25 real-time annual forecasts of global mean surface temperature finds a correlation of 0.96 with observations and errors under a tenth of a degree, alongside one glaring miss in 2023 and a well-called record year in 2024.
- 0.96
- correlation between the 25 issued real-time forecasts and observed global temperature, 2000–2024
- 0.09°C
- root mean square error of the issued forecasts against observations over the full 25-year record