Markets
Capital loops
A source-linked ledger of the equity, warrants, compute commitments, GPU purchases, joint ventures, revenue shares and debt that fund the AI build-out, drawn as flows, dates and quarterly totals.
Every row in the ledger is a deal between two named parties with a citation and a date. Announced ceilings and committed amounts are kept apart throughout: the disclosed figure is what was announced, the committed figure is the part that is closed, contracted or drawn. The exhibits describe flows and dates. They make no forecast.
- 103
- Cited deals
- $1.51tn
- Disclosed
- $111bn
- Committed
- 4
- Closed loops
Who funds whom
The flow graph
Each arc is a company, coloured by kind. Each band is the disclosed flow from one company to another, and the solid core drawn inside a band is the committed part. Bands that sit on a closed loop are outlined. Hover or tap a band for the deals behind it, or an arc for a company's totals in and out.
Key takeaways
- OpenAI is the largest source of disclosed flow at $721bn, almost all of it compute commitments.
- $111bn of the $1.51tn disclosed is committed: about 7 cents in the dollar. The rest is announced ceilings, letters of intent and reported figures.
- 4 loops close on disclosed flows. None has committed value on every link, so no loop closes on contracted money.
When
Deals by date, against the market
Each dot is a deal on its announcement date, one row per instrument; a filled dot carries a committed amount. Drag the orange handle to replay the ledger as of any date: the flow graph above follows it. Beneath it, four market series are indexed to 100 on the first deal date, with every announcement marked along the axis. The panel places dates side by side and makes no claim about cause.
Key takeaways
- The ledger runs from 23 January 2023 to 31 August 2026. Only 18 of its 103 deals fall before 2025.
- Equity is the one instrument present throughout: 9 rounds before 2025 and 24 since. Compute commitments and debt fill the crowded rows from mid-2025.
- Toggle a series or move the base date to re-index the market panel. The deal markers stay put: they are dates, not prices.
How much
Disclosed value per quarter
Each bar is the disclosed value announced in a quarter, with the committed value drawn inside it. Hover a bar for the split by instrument.
Key takeaways
- Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 are the peak quarters, at $463bn and $456bn disclosed.
- The largest committed quarter is Q2 2026 at $32bn, 16% of that quarter's disclosed figure.
- The gap between the outer bar and the inner one is the space between what was announced and what is contracted.
Circularity
Loops over time
A loop closes when disclosed flows run in a cycle back to where they started, for example a chip maker investing in a lab that commits to buy compute from a cloud that buys the chip maker's hardware. Bars count the loops closed in each quarter; the line is the running total.
Key takeaways
- Q3 2025: 2 loops closed, CoreWeave to OpenAI to Oracle to NVIDIA; NVIDIA to OpenAI to Oracle.
- Q2 2026: 2 loops closed, Amazon to OpenAI to Microsoft to Anthropic; Amazon to OpenAI to Oracle to NVIDIA to Anthropic.
- The weakest link of every cycle is an announced figure rather than a contracted one, which is why the committed count stays at zero.