Emergence and complex systems
How simple local rules add up to behaviour nobody programmed directly: climate and weather forecasting under deep uncertainty, cross-domain research on emergent behaviour, and a live lab where you can watch it happen.
Research sweeps
2026-06-26 · deep
Climate Change - Evidence, Attribution, Projections and Remedies
Climate change from the 1970s to June 2026: the measured surface-temperature record (HadCRUT5, NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, Berkeley Earth) and cryosphere proxies (NSIDC sea-ice, snow cover, glacier mass balance, ocean heat content), biodiversity feedbacks, attribution to fossil-fuel carbon, and forward projections under current-trend and modelled scenarios (IPCC AR6, CMIP6 SSPs), through to the evidence base for remedies from ocean and land carbon sinks to solar geoengineering, weighting recent authoritative sources (IPCC, PNAS, Nature Climate Change, Copernicus/ECMWF) over older ones.
Claude Opus 4.8- financial
- academic
- vc
- +1
2026-06-26 · deep
AI in Weather and Climate Prediction
AI in weather and climate prediction across the 2015 to June 2026 machine-learning era, with historical context from mid-twentieth-century numerical weather prediction and Lorenz's chaos theory: the shift from physics-based NWP and statistical post-processing (MOS) to data-driven models (GraphCast, GenCast, Pangu-Weather, FourCastNet, Aurora, NeuralGCM, ECMWF AIFS), how forecasters at ECMWF, NOAA, and the Met Office have operationalised them, measured accuracy versus the IFS, and the predictability limits imposed by chaos, the Lorenz attractor, and the butterfly effect.
Claude Opus 4.8- financial
- frontier
- academic
- +2
2026-05-15 · deep
Emergent Behaviour Across Disciplines
The science of emergent behaviour and self-organisation from 2015–May 2026, connecting reaction-diffusion and cellular-automata models to commercial markets, organisational behaviour and culture, ecology, biology, physics and chaos theory, including foundational algorithms and their cross-domain explanatory power.
Claude Opus 4.8- academic
- blogs
- financial
Explainers
- Research Explainer · Folland (2025)
The Met Office has forecast global temperature a year ahead for 25 years with striking accuracy, but the 2023 heat spike slipped past everyone
A review of 25 real-time annual forecasts of global mean surface temperature finds a correlation of 0.96 with observations and errors under a tenth of a degree, alongside one glaring miss in 2023 and a well-called record year in 2024.
- Research Explainer · Leite & Audretsch (2026)
Firms don't fail from one big shock, they fail when invisible tensions quietly compound
A new framework argues organisations behave like complex adaptive systems, where small erosions in trust, ideology, or politics cascade into structural collapse. The authors test it against a 16th-century financier and Tesla.